Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014052 0.015889 0.017891 0.020237 0.022914 0.025877 0.029410
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011335 0.013880 0.016895 0.020743 0.025540 0.031342 0.038927
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009547 0.012318 0.015790 0.020481 0.026686 0.034660 0.045760
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008308 0.011185 0.014955 0.020291 0.027704 0.037721 0.052416
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007371 0.010291 0.014268 0.020128 0.028623 0.040614 0.059039
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006824 0.009845 0.014107 0.020622 0.030442 0.044872 0.068014
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006175 0.009172 0.013533 0.020420 0.031169 0.047545 0.074842
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.005849 0.008931 0.013552 0.021081 0.033233 0.052405 0.085585
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005251 0.008213 0.012770 0.020402 0.033088 0.053728 0.090655
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004811 0.007698 0.012251 0.020078 0.033459 0.055882 0.097308
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004339 0.007090 0.011525 0.019333 0.033032 0.056620 0.101511
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004187 0.006991 0.011620 0.019977 0.035043 0.061742 0.114177
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004010 0.006842 0.011627 0.020485 0.036898 0.066840 0.127540
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003838 0.006687 0.011612 0.020954 0.038731 0.072094 0.141881
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003569 0.006338 0.011221 0.020692 0.039156 0.074714 0.151246
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003338 0.006035 0.010887 0.020500 0.039685 0.077571 0.161417
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003131 0.005761 0.010583 0.020335 0.040244 0.080527 0.172132
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003029 0.005673 0.010618 0.020834 0.042187 0.086501 0.190170
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002848 0.005421 0.010318 0.020631 0.042648 0.089400 0.201629
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002782 0.005387 0.010439 0.021299 0.045019 0.096644 0.224066
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002572 0.005052 0.009935 0.020612 0.044378 0.097174 0.230536
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002417 0.004816 0.009613 0.020285 0.044496 0.099414 0.241453
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002232 0.004505 0.009115 0.019531 0.043580 0.099172 0.246097